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effects of global warming on Australia

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Over the next century and beyond, climate change will result in a broad range of consequences for most regions, including Australia. [1]. This article is about predicted impacts of Climate change and Global warming on Australia and its climate. It is based on the projections of the CSIRO's Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions" [2] which was prepared before the release of the International Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report.

Australia is the highest emitter of greenhouse gases per capita in the world. It is one of the major exporters of coal, the burning of which causes CO2. It is also one of the countries most at risk from climate change according to the Stern report. This is partially because of the size of its agriculture sector and long coastline.

Overview[edit]

Australia is vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation projected for the next 50 to 100 years, because it already has extensive arid and semi-arid areas, relatively high rainfall variability from year to year, and existing pressures on water supply in many areas. In addition, vulnerability arises due to high fire risk, Australian ecosystems sensitive to climate change, and invasion by exotic animal and plant species introduced by human activity. Australia also has a high concentration of population in coastal areas, an economy strongly dependent on world commodity prices, tourism dependent on the health of the Great Barrier Reef and other fragile ecosystems, and economically and socially disadvantaged groups of people. Impacts of climate change will be complex and to some degree uncertain, but increased foresight would enable us to optimise the future through planned adaptation and mitigation. Mitigation can reduce the ultimate extent of climate change and its impacts, but is a global problem requiring cooperative global solutions. Adaptation is essential to cope with unavoidable climate changes, and in this country is essentially a task to be performed by Australians for Australians in each local situation. [3]

Climate[edit]

Analysis of future emissions trajectories indicates that, left unchecked, human GHG emissions will increase several fold over the 21st century. As a consequence, Australia’s annual average temperatures are projected to increase 0.4–2.0°C above 1990 levels by the year 2030, and 1–6°C by 2070. Average precipitation in southwest and southeast Australia is projected to decline further in future decades, while regions such as the northwest may experience increases in precipitation. Meanwhile, Australia’s coastlines will experience erosion and inundation from an estimated 8–88 cm increase in global sea level. Such changes in climate will have diverse implications for Australia’s environment, economy,and public health.[4]

Extreme weather events[edit]

Globally, the World Meteorological Organization has claimed that extreme events are on the rise as a result of anthropogenic perturbation of the climate system,[5] and climate models indicate the potential for increases in extremes of temperature, precipitation, droughts, storms, and floods.[6]

A key cross-cutting issue that emerges from examining climate change impacts across multiple sectors is the significant influence of extreme weather events on the consequences of climate change.

The cited CSIRO report contains a table that describes the additional extreme weather events for rises in temperature.

As an example, the CSIRO predicts that the additional extreme weather events in Australia of a temperature rise of between 2 and 3 degrees celsius will be:

  • 5–10% increase in tropical cyclone wind speeds [7]
  • 20–30% increase in tropical cyclone rainfall
  • 12–16% increase in 100-year storm tides along eastern Victoria’s coast [8]
  • 10% increase in forest fire danger index in N, SW, and W Australia [9]
  • More than 10% increase in forest fire danger index in S, central, and NE Australia[10]

Lower rises have other adverse results, higher rises have additional adverse results.

Projected large-scale singularities from climate change[edit]

Large-scale singularities, complex non-linear responses where systems switch from one state to another, could cause a broad range of direct and indirect consequences to many regions of the world, including Australia. Historical and paleological data provide ample evidence that singularities and abrupt changes in the climate system have occurred repeatedly in the past.

Perhaps the singularity of most immediate relevance to Australia is the collapse (regional or even global) of coral reef ecosystems, which appear to switch quite rapidly (i.e., over a narrow temperature range) from being healthy to being stressed, bleached, or eliminated. [11]

Ecosystem changes further a field may also ultimately have affects on climate change in Australia. For example, carbon cycle modelling as suggested that forest dieback in tropical regions could ultimately transform the terrestrial biosphere from a sink for carbon to a source – increasing the net concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.[12]

Recent work in the UK indicates that climate change is causing carbon to be released from soils at a rate equivalent to almost 10% of UK annual industrial CO2 emissions – potentially offsetting reductions in anthropogenic emissions. [13]

For a number of years, scientists have expressed concern about the potential for climate change to destabilize the large ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica.[14] Global warming as well as the melting of glaciers and ice sheets (which increases the flux of freshwater to the oceans), could destabilize the global ocean thermohaline circulation (THC). Such destabilisation could slow its circulation, potentially to the point of complete collapse, causing regional climate shifts with significant environmental and economic consequences. [15] [16]

Melting of glaciers and ice sheets also contributes to sea-level rise. Vast quantities of ice are locked away in the ice sheets of West Antarctica and Greenland, collectively equivalent to approximately 12 meters of sea-level rise. Destabilisation or collapse of these ice sheets would lead to centuries of irreversible sea-level rise and coastal inundation around the world.

The cited CSIRO report contains a table that describes the additional probability of large scale singularities for rises in temperature.

As an example, the CSIRO predicts that the additional singularities caused by a temperature rise of between 2 and 3 degrees celsius will be:

  • Effects on thermohaline circulation (THC) begin to occur [17]
  • Significant reduction in THC [18]
  • 20–25% reduction in THC [19]
  • 5% chance of major change in THC [20]
  • Threshold for collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet exceeded [21]
    [22]

Lower rises have other adverse results, higher rises have additional adverse results.

Should the Greenland ice sheet completely melt the estimated sea level rise is 7 metres. Should the West Antarctic Ice Sheet completely melt the estimated sea level rise is 7 also metres. Should they both melt, the total rise is 14 metres. These figures were dramatically revealed to the general public in the movie An Inconvenient Truth. Should one or both of these events occur, the sea level rise on which the results described below would be dramatically higher with almost unbelievable consequences, not only for Australia, but for the world.

Biodiversity and ecosystems[edit]

The biodiversity, ecosystems, and natural habitats of Australia are world renowned, yet potentially the most fragile of the systems that will be exposed to climate change. For example, the Great Barrier Reef, a UNCESCO World Heritage area, has experienced unprecedented rates of bleaching over the past two decades, and additional warming of only 1°C is anticipated to cause considerable losses or contractions of species associated with coral communities. [23]

The cited CSIRO report contains a table that describes the additional impact on ecosystems for rises in temperature.

As an example, the CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between 2 and 3 degrees celsius will be:

  • 97% of the Great Barrier Reef is bleached every year [24]
  • 10–40% loss of core habitat for Victoria and montane tropical vertebrate species[25]
  • 92% of butterfly species’ core habitat decreases [26]
  • 98% decrease in Bowerbird habitat in N Australia [27]
  • 80% loss of freshwater wetlands in Kakadu (30 cm sea level rise)[28]

Lower rises have other adverse results, higher rises have additional adverse results.

Industry[edit]

Agriculture forestry and livestock[edit]

Australian crop agriculture and forestry may experience transient benefits from longer growing seasons a warmer climate and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, yet such benefits are unlikely to be sustained under the more extreme projections of global warming. Furthermore, changes in precipitation and subsequent water management are critical factors affecting the future productivity of the Australian landscape. The declines in precipitation projected over much of Australia will exacerbate existing challenges to water availability and quality for agriculture as well as for commercial and residential uses. [29]

The cited CSIRO report contains a table that describes the additional impact on agriculture, forestry and livestock for rises in temperature.

As an example, the CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between 3 and 4 degrees celsius will be:

  • 32% chance of decreased wheat production (without adaptation)[30]
  • 45% chance of wheat crop value being below current level (without adaptation)[31]
  • 55% of core habitat lost for Eucalyptus[32]
  • 25–50% increase in “generic” timber yield in cool and wet parts of S Australia [33]
  • 25–50% decrease in “generic” timber yield in N Queensland and Top End [34]
  • 6% decline in Australian net primary production (for 20% precipitation decrease)
  • 128% increase in tick-related losses in net cattle production weight [35]

Lower rises have other adverse results, higher rises have additional adverse results.

Water Resources[edit]

Many of Australia’s most important catchments are covered by native forest. The impact of climate change on growth, species composition, and frequent/severity of fire and pest incursion may profoundly impact on water supply from these catchments, including the prospect of water losses due to further reafforestation in cleared catchments. [36]

The cited CSIRO report contains a table that describes the additional impact on water resources for rises in temperature.

As an example, the CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between only 1 and 2 degrees celsius will be:

Lower rises have other adverse results, higher rises have additional adverse results.

Public Health[edit]

The cited CSIRO report contains a table that describes the additional impact on public health for rises in temperature.

As an example, the CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between only 1 and 2 degrees celsius will be [39]:

  • Southward spread of malaria receptive zones
  • Population at risk of dengue fever increases from 0.17 million to 0.75-1.6 million
  • 10% increase in diarrhoeal diseases among Aboriginal children in central Australia
  • 100% increase in number of people exposed to flooding in Australia and New Zealand
  • Increased influx of refugees from Pacific Islands.

Lower rises have other adverse results, higher rises have additional adverse results.

Settlements and infrastructure[edit]

Future changes in climate extremes, such as tropical cyclones, heat waves, and extreme precipitation events, would degrade Australian infrastructure and public health; e.g. through increased energy demands, maintenance costs for transportation infrastructure, and coastal flooding. p5 In the coastal zone, sea level rise and storm surge may be more critical drivers than either temperature or precipitation [40].

The cited CSIRO report contains a table that describes the additional impact on settlements and infrastructure for rises in temperature of only 1 to 2 degrees celsius:

  • 100 year storm surge height around Cairns increases 22%; area flooded doubles [41]
  • Peak electricity demand in Melbourne and Sydney decreases 1% [42]
  • Peak electricity demand in Adelaide and Brisbane increases 4–10%

Coastal Communities[edit]

Australia’s coastal zone is of particular concern, due to its thousands of kilometres of coastline and the concentration of much of Australia’s population, commerce, and industry in the coastal zone. Climate modelling has suggested that storm winds, including those associated with tropical cyclones, may become more intense with a warming of 1–2°C [43]. This combined with sea-level rise would result in higher storm surge during storm events and a greater area flooded. In addition, higher wind speeds would increase storm damages as they tend to increase with the square of wind speed.[44] Sea-level rise and storm events also contribute to coastal inundation and beach erosion, which may affect popular tourism and recreation areas. At higher levels of warming, coastal impacts become more severe with higher storm winds and sea levels.

Suburbs of Sydney like Drummoyne and Concord on rivers like the Parramatta River face risks of inundation of low lying areas such as parks (such as Timbrell Park and Majors Bay Reserve) reclaimed from mudflats at the heads of bays, or massive expenses in rebuilding seawalls to higher levels.

The Gold Coast, being built on sand and with many canal developments, could be considered particularly at risk.

Environment[edit]

Great Barrier Reef[edit]

The Great Barrier Reef could be killed as a result of the rise in water temperature forecast by the IPCC. The Great Barrier Reef, a UNCESCO World Heritage area, has experienced unprecedented rates of bleaching over the past two decades, and additional warming of only 1°C is anticipated to cause considerable losses or contractions of species associated with coral communities (CSIRO op cit)

Lord Howe Island[edit]

The coral reefs of the World Heritage listed Lord Howe Island could be killed as a result of the rise in water temperature forecast by the IPCC.

Inland Waters[edit]

The Murray River, Darling River Coorong and Macquarie Marshes are all at risk from decreased rainfall from climate change.



References[edit]

  1. ↑ Pittock, B. (ed.) (2003) Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts.Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, ACT, Australia
  2. ↑ CSIRO's Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions" [1]
  3. ↑ Climate Change - An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts {http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/guide/index.html]
  4. ↑ CSIRO's Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions" [2]
  5. ↑ World Meteorological Organisation (2003) Press release, Geneva, Switzerland, 2 July.
  6. ↑ IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. McCarthy, J., Canziani, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D and White, K. (eds). Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations Environment Programme. Cambridge University Press, 1032 pp.
  7. ↑ McInnes, K.L., Walsh, K.J.E., Hubbert, G.D., and Beer, T. (2003) Impact of sea-level rise and storm surges on a coastal community. Natural Hazards 30, 187-207.
  8. ↑ McInnes, K.L., Macadam, I., Hubbert, G.D., Abbs, D.J., and Bathols, J. (2005) Climate Change in Eastern Victoria, Stage 2 Report: The Effect of Climate Change on Storm Surges. A consultancy report undertaken for the Gippsland Coastal Board by the Climate Impacts Group, CSIRO Atmospheric Research.
  9. ↑ Williams, A.A., Karoly, D.J., and Tapper, N. (2001) The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change. Climatic Change 49, 171-191.
  10. ↑ Cary, G.J. (2002) Importance of changing climate for fire regimes in Australia. In: R.A. Bradstock, J.E. Williams and A.M. Gill (eds), Flammable Australia: The Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of A Continent, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, pp. 26–46.
  11. ↑ Baumert, K., Pershing, J., Herzog, T., Markoff, M. (2004) Climate Data: Insights and Observations. Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA, USA.
  12. ↑ Jones, C.D., Cox, P.M., Essery, R.L.H., Roberts, D.L., and Woodage, M.J. (2003) Strong carbon cycle feedbacks CO2 and sulphate aerosols. Geophysical Research Letters 30, doi:10.1029/2003GL01686.
  13. ↑ Bellamy, P.H., Loveland, P.J., Bradley, R.I., Lark, R.M., and Kirk, G.J.D. (2005) Carbon losses from all soils across England and Wales 1978−2003. Nature 437, 245-248.
  14. ↑ Oppenheimer, M. (1998) Global warming and the stability the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature 393, 325-332.
  15. ↑ Schmittner, A. (2005) Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature 434, 628-633.
  16. ↑ Rahmstorf, S., and Zickfeld, K. (2005) Thermohaline circulation: A question of risk assessment. Climatic Change 68, 241–247.
  17. ↑ Stocker, T.F., and Schmittner, A. (1997). Influence of CO2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Nature 388, 862-865.
  18. ↑ IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.T. Houghton, Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C.A. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp.
  19. ↑ Kamenkovich, I.V., Sokolov, A.V., and Stone, P.H. (2003) Factors affecting the response of thermohaline circulation to increasing CO2: a study with a model of intermediate complexity. Climate Dynamics, 21, 119-130.
  20. ↑ Rahmstorf, S., and Zickfeld, K. (2005) Thermohaline circulation changes: A question of risk assessment. Climatic Change, 68, 241-257.
  21. ↑ Oppenheimer, M. (1998) Global warming and the stability the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature 393,325-332.
  22. ↑ Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Raper, S.C.B. (2004) Threatened loss of the Greenland ice-sheet. Nature 6983, 616.
  23. ↑ CSIRO's Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions" [3]
  24. ↑ Jones, R.N. (2004) Managing Climate Change Risks, in Agrawala, S. and Corfee-Morlot, J. (eds.), The Benefits of Climate Change Policies: Analytical and Framework Issues, OECD, Paris, 249–298.
  25. ↑ Brereton, R., Bennett, S. and Mansergh, I. (1995) Enhanced greenhouse climate change and its potential effect on selected fauna of south-eastern Australia: a trend analysis. Biological Conservation, 72, 39-354.
  26. ↑ Beaumont, L.J., and Hughes, L. (2002) Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change. Global Change Biology 8(10), 954-971.
  27. ↑ Hilbert, D.W., Bradford, M., Parker, T., and Westcott, D.A. (2004) Golden bowerbird (Prionodura newtonia) habitat in past, present and future climates: predicted extinction of a vertebrate in tropical highlands due to global warming. Biological Conservation, 116, 367
  28. ↑ Hare, W., (2003) Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change – Contribution to the Specification of Art. 2 of the UNFCCC, WGBU, Berlin, [4]
  29. ↑ CSIRO's Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions" [5]
  30. ↑ Howden, S.M., and Jones, R.N. (2001) Costs and benefits of CO2 increase and climate change on the Australian wheat industry, Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, Australia.
  31. ↑ Howden, S.M., and Jones, R.N. (2001) Costs and benefits of CO2 increase and climate change on the Australian wheat industry, Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, Australia.
  32. ↑ Hughes, L., Cawsey, E.M., Westoby, M. (1996) Geographic and climatic range sizes of Australian eucalyptus and a test of Rapoport's rule. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters 5, 128-142.
  33. ↑ Kirschbaum, M.U.F. (1999) The effect of climate change on forest growth in Australia. In: Impacts of Global Change on Australian Temperate Forests. S.M. Howden and J.T. Gorman (eds), Working Paper Series, 99/08, pp. 62-68 (CSIRO Wildlife and Ecology, Canberra).
  34. ↑ Kirschbaum, M.U.F. (1999) The effect of climate change on forest growth in Australia. In: Impacts of Global Change on Australian Temperate Forests. S.M. Howden and J.T. Gorman (eds), Working Paper Series, 99/08, pp. 62-68 (CSIRO Wildlife and Ecology, Canberra).
  35. ↑ White, N.A., Sutherst, R.W., Hall, N., and Wish-Wilson, P. (2003) The vulnerability of the Australian beef industry to impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus) under climate change. Climatic Change 61, 157-190.
  36. ↑ Herron, N., Davis, R., and Jones, R.N. (2002) The effects of large-scale afforestation and climate change on water allocation in the Macquarie River Catchment, NSW, Australia. Journal of Environmental Management 65, 369-381.
  37. ↑ Arnell, N.W. (1999) Climate change and global water resources. Global Environmental Change 9, S31-S46.
  38. ↑ Howe, C., Jones, R.N., Maheepala, S., and Rhodes, B. (2005) Implications of Climate Change for Melbourne’s Water Resources. Melbourne Water, Melbourne, 26 pp.
  39. ↑ McMichael, A. J., et al. (2003) Human Health and Climate Change in Oceania: A Risk Assessment. Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing, 128 pp.
  40. ↑ CSIRO op cit p20
  41. ↑ McInnes, K.L., Walsh, K.J.E., Hubbert, G.D., and Beer, T. (2003) Impact of sea-level rise and storm surges on a coastal community. Natural Hazards 30, 187-207.
  42. ↑ Howden, S.M., and Crimp, S. (2001) Effect of climate and climate change on electricity demand in Australia. In: Integrating Models for Natural Resources Management Across Disciplines, Issues and Scales. Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, December 2001,Canberra. Ghassemi, F., P. Whetton, R. Little and M. Littleboy, (eds.), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Canberra, pp. 655-660.
  43. ↑ Coleman, T. (2002) The impact of climate change on insurance against catastrophes. Proceedings of Living with Climate Change Conference. Canberra, 19 December.
  44. ↑ Coleman, T. (2002) The impact of climate change on insurance against catastrophes. Proceedings of Living with Climate Change Conference. Canberra, 19 December.

See Also[edit]

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