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| − | '''End of the world scenarios''' are the scenarios which could destroy humankind as a whole, or even cause the end of planet [[Earth]]. The concept is expressed in various phrases such as "[[End of the World]]", "[[Doomsday]]", and others.
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| − | ==Future scenarios==
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| − | Many scenarios have been suggested. Some that will almost certainly end humanity are certain to occur, but on a very long timescale. Others are likely to happen on a shorter timescale, but will probably not completely destroy civilization. Still others are extremely unlikely, and may even be impossible. For example, [[Nick Bostrom]] writes:<ref name="unlikely">Nick Bostrom, section 4.7.</ref>
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| − | :''Some foreseen hazards (hence not members of the current category) which have been excluded from the list of bangs on grounds that they seem too unlikely to cause a global terminal disaster are: solar flares, supernovae, black hole explosions or mergers, gamma-ray bursts, galactic center outbursts, supervolcanoes, buildup of air pollution, gradual loss of human fertility, and various religious doomsday scenarios.''
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| − | ===Space===
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| − | Events in the universe will certainly cause [[life on Earth]] to come to an end. There is, however, uncertainty about what the events will be. At the latest, in about 5 billion years, [[stellar evolution]] predicts our [[sun]] will exhaust its core hydrogen and become a [[red giant]].<ref name=OSPF>[http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?bibcode=1993ApJ...418..457S Our Sun. III. Present and Future]</ref><ref name=DFSER>[http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.13022.x Distant future of the Sun and Earth revisited]</ref><ref name="MU42">{{cite book
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| − | |author= Serge Brunier
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| − | |title= Majestic Universe: Views from Here to Infinity
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| − | |publisher= Cambridge University Press
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| − | |year= 1999
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| − | |pages= p42
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| − | |isbn= 0521663075
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| − | }}</ref> In so doing, it will become thousands of times more luminous.<ref>[http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/astro/redgia.html Red Giants]</ref> As a red giant, the Sun will lose roughly 30% of its mass, so, without tidal effects, the Earth will be in an orbit {{convert|1.7|AU|km| abbr=on}} from the Sun when the star reaches it maximum radius. Therefore, the planet is thought to escape envelopment by the expanded Sun's sparse outer atmosphere, though most (if not all) existing life would have been destroyed by the Sun's proximity to Earth.<ref name=OSPF/> However, a more recent simulation indicates that Earth's orbit will decay due to tidal effects and drag, causing it to enter the red giant Sun's atmosphere and be destroyed.<ref name=DFSER/><ref>[http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/death_of_earth_000224.html SPACE.com - Freeze, Fry or Dry: How Long Has the Earth Got?<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref><ref>[http://www.astronomytoday.com/astronomy/sun.html Sun, the solar system's only star<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>
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| − | On an even longer time scale, the [[ultimate fate of the universe|universe may come to an end]]. The current [[age of the universe|universe]] is estimated as being 13.73 billion years old. There are several competing theories as to the nature of our [[universe]] and how it will end, but in all cases, life as we know it will not be possible. These scenarios take place on a considerably longer timescale than the expansion of the sun.
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| − | ====Meteorite impact====
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| − | Long before the sun is predicted to expand into a red giant, there may be [[bolide]]s hitting the Earth. In the [[history of the Earth]], it is widely accepted that several large [[meteorite]]s have hit [[Earth]]. The [[Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event|Cretaceous-Tertiary asteroid]], for example, is theorized to have caused the extinction of the [[dinosaur]]s. If such an object struck Earth it could have a serious impact on civilization. It's even possible that humanity would be completely destroyed: for this, the asteroid would need to be at least 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter, but probably between 3–10 km (2–6 miles).<ref name="meteor">Nick Bostrom, section 4.10</ref> Asteroids with a 1 km diameter impact the Earth every 500,000 years<ref name="meteor" /> on average. Larger asteroids are less common. The last large (>10 km) impact happened [[Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event|65 million years ago]]. So-called [[Near-Earth asteroid]]s are regularly being observed.
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| − | A star passage that will cause an increase of meteorites is the arrival of a star called [[Gliese 710]]. This star is probably moving on a collision course with the [[Solar System]] and will likely be at a distance 1.1 [[light year]]s from the Sun in 1.4 million years. Some models predict that this will send large amounts of comets from the [[Oort cloud]] to the Earth.<ref>[http://www.exitmundi.nl/Gliese710.htm Date With The Neigbors: Gliese 710 And Other Incoming Stars]</ref> Other models, such as the one by GarcÃa-Sánchez, predict an increase of only 5%.
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| − | ==== Less likely cosmic threats ====
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| − | A number of other scenarios have been suggested. Massive objects, e.g., a [[star]], large [[planet]] or [[black hole]], could be catastrophic if a close encounter occurred in the solar system. (Gravity from the wandering objects might disrupt orbits and/or fling bodies into other objects, thus resulting in meteorite impacts or [[climate change]]. Also, heat from the wandering objects might cause extinctions; tidal forces could cause erosion along our coastlines.) Another threat might come from [[Gamma ray bursts#Mass extinction on Earth|gamma ray bursts]]. <ref name="gammaray">[http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/starsgalaxies/gammaray_extinction.html Explosions in Space May Have Initiated Ancient Extinction on Earth], [[NASA]].</ref> Both are very unlikely.<ref name="unlikely" />
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| − | Still others see [[extraterrestrial life]] as a possible threat to mankind;<ref name="aliens">[http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_10_21/ai_65368918 Twenty ways the world could end suddenly], Discover Magazine</ref> although alien life has never been found, scientists such as [[Carl Sagan]] have postulated that the existence of extraterrestrial life is very likely. In 1969, the "[[Extra-Terrestrial Exposure Law]]" was added to the Code of Federal Regulations (Title 14, Section 1211) in response to the possibility of biological contamination resulting from the US Apollo Space Program. It was removed in 1991.<ref>[http://www.snopes.com/legal/et.htm Urban Legends Reference Pages: Legal Affairs (E.T. Make Bail)]</ref> Scientists consider such a scenario technically possible, but unlikely.<ref name="aliensunlikely">Nick Bostrom, section 7.2.</ref>
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| − | In April 2008, it was announced that two simulations of long-term planetary movement, one at [[Paris Observatory]] and the other at [[University of California, Santa Cruz]] indicate a 1% chance that [[Mercury (planet)|Mercury]]'s orbit could be made unstable by [[Jupiter]]'s gravitational pull sometime during the lifespan of the sun. Were this to happen, the simulations suggest a collision with Earth could be one of four possible outcomes (the others being colliding with the Sun, colliding with Venus, or being ejected from the solar system altogether).<ref>Ken Croswell, [http://www.skyandtelescope.com/news/home/18103199.html Will Mercury Hit Earth Someday?], Skyandtelescope.com April 24, 2008, accessed April 26, 2008</reF>
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| − | ===Earth===
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| − | '''Ice age:''' In the history of the Earth, many [[ice age]]s have occurred. More ice ages will almost certainly come at an interval of 40,000–100,000 years. This would have a serious impact on civilization, because vast areas of land (mainly in [[North America]], [[Europe]], and [[Asia]]) could become uninhabitable. It would still be possible to live in the tropical regions, but with possible loss of humidity/water. Currently, the world is existing in an interglacial period within a much older glacial event. The last glacial expansion ended about 10,000 years ago, and all civilizations, save a few hunter-gatherer populations, have come into existence during that time.
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| − | '''Global pandemic:''' A less predictable scenario is a global [[pandemic]]. For example, if [[HIV]] mutates and becomes as transmissible as the [[common cold]], the consequences would be disastrous, but probably not fatal to the human species,<ref name="pandemic">Nick Bostrom, section 4.9.</ref> as some people are immune to HIV.<ref>[http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/10/4/l_104_06.html Evolution: Library: HIV Immunity<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> This particular scenario would also contradict the observable tendency for pathogens to become less fatal over time as a function of [[natural selection]]. A pathogen that quickly kills its hosts will not likely have enough time to spread to new ones, while one that kills its hosts more slowly or not at all will allow carriers more time to spread the infection, and thus likely outcompete a more lethal species or strain. A real-life example of this process can be found in the historical evolution of [[syphilis]] towards [http://www.qmul.ac.uk/news/newsrelease.php?news_id=9 a less virulent form]. Also, as a virus mutates in a direction of being easily transmittable it will likely give up much of its virulence in the process. This is not to say that a highly destructive and highly transmissible disease is not possible. Ebola, for example, is highly contagious and 90% fatal; the only reason it hasn't caused a worldwide crisis is because outbreaks occur in rural Africa. Of course, a pandemic resulting in human extinction need not arise naturally; the possibility of one caused by a deliberately-engineered pathogen cannot be ruled out.
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| − | '''Megatsunami:''' Another possibility is a [[megatsunami]]. A megatsunami could, for example, destroy the entire east coast of the [[USA|United States of America]]. The coastal areas of the entire world could also be flooded in case of the collapse of the [[West Antarctic Ice Sheet]].<ref name="wais">[http://igloo.gsfc.nasa.gov/wais/ US West Antarctic Ice Sheet initiative]</ref> While none of these scenarios are likely to destroy humanity completely, they could regionally threaten civilization. There has been [[2004 Indian Ocean earthquake|one recent high-fatality tsunami]], although it was not big enough to be a megatsunami.
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| − | '''Ecological disaster:''' An [[ecological disaster]], such as world crop failure and collapse of [[ecosystem services]], could be induced by the present trends of [[overpopulation]], [[economic development]], and non-[[sustainable agriculture]]. Most of these scenarios involve one or more of the following: [[Holocene extinction event]], [[Water crisis|scarcity of water]] that could lead to approximately one half of the Earth's population being without safe [[drinking water]], [[pollinator decline]], [[overfishing]], massive [[deforestation]], [[desertification]], [[climate change]], or massive [[water pollution]] episodes. A very recent threat in this direction is [[colony collapse disorder]], a phenomenon that might foreshadow the imminent extinction{{Fact|date=July 2008}} of the [[Western honeybee]]. As the bee plays a vital role in [[pollination]], its extinction would severely disrupt the [[food chain]].
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| − | '''World population and agricultural crisis:''' The 20th century saw a rapid increase in [[human population]] due to [[History of medicine#Modern medicine|medical advances]] and massive increase in agricultural productivity<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4994590.stm BBC NEWS | The end of India's green revolution?]</ref> made by the [[Green Revolution]].<ref>[http://www.foodfirst.org/media/opeds/2000/4-greenrev.html Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy]</ref> Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The Green Revolution in agriculture helped food production to keep pace with worldwide [[population growth]]. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of [[fertilizers]] (natural gas), [[pesticides]] (oil), and [[hydrocarbon]] fueled [[irrigation]].<ref>[http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/agriculture.html How peak oil could lead to starvation]</ref> David Pimentel, professor of ecology and [[agriculture]] at [[Cornell University]], and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), place in their study ''Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy'' the maximum [[U.S. population]] for a [[sustainability|sustainable economy]] at 200 million. To achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster, the [[United States]] must reduce its population by at least one-third, and [[world population]] will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says the study.<ref>[http://www.energybulletin.net/281.html Eating Fossil Fuels | EnergyBulletin.net]</ref>
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| − | The authors of this study believe that the mentioned agricultural crisis will only begin to impact us after 2020, and will not become critical until 2050. Geologist [[Dale Allen Pfeiffer]] claims that coming decades could see spiraling [[food]] prices without relief and massive [[starvation]] on a global level such as never experienced before.<ref>[http://www.soilassociation.org/peakoil Peak Oil: the threat to our food security]</ref><ref>[http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2225 Agriculture Meets Peak Oil]</ref>
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| − | '''Pole shift theory:''' An abrupt [[Pole shift theory|reorientation of Earth's axis of rotation]] could cause a new [[extinction event]].<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/12/science/earth/12extinct.html?ex=1176609600&en=9fc4a5a53674ca70&ei=5087&excamp=mkt_at8 | title=Study Links Extinction Cycles to Changes in Earth’s Orbit and Tilt | publication=[[The New York Times]] |date=2006-10-12 | author=Wilford, John Noble}}</ref>
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| − | '''Supervolcano:''' When the [[supervolcano]] at [[Yellowstone National Park|Yellowstone]] last erupted, 640,000 years ago, the magma and ash ejected from the [[Yellowstone Caldera|caldera]] covered most of the United States and part of northeastern Mexico<ref>{{cite book|last=Breining|first=Greg|title=Super Volcano: The Ticking Time Bomb Beneath Yellowstone National Park|publisher=Voyageur Press|location=St. Paul, MN.|date=2007|pages=256 pg|chapter=Distant Death|isbn=978-0-7603-2925-2|language=English}}</ref> west of the Mississippi river. Another such eruption could threaten civilization. Such an eruption could also release large amounts of gases that could alter the balance of the planet's carbon dioxide and cause a runaway greenhouse effect, or enough pyroclastic debris and other material may be thrown into the atmosphere to partially block out the sun and cause a natural [[nuclear winter]], similar to 1816, the [[Year Without A Summer]]. Such an eruption may cause the immediate deaths of millions of people several hundred miles from the eruption, and perhaps billions of deaths<ref name="Supervolcano">{{cite book|last=Breining|first=Greg|title=Super Volcano: The Ticking Time Bomb Beneath Yellowstone National Park|publisher=Voyageur Press|location=St. Paul, MN.|date=2007|pages=256 pg|chapter=The Next Big Blast|isbn=978-0-7603-2925-2|language=English}}</ref> worldwide due to the failure of the [[monsoon]]{{Fact|date=July 2008}}, as well as destruction of the "American breadbasket", causing starvation on a massive scale<ref name="Supervolcano" />.
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| − | '''Modification of the Sun's properties:''' The Earth will likely be dragged into the sun when it becomes an enlarged [[red giant]] by no later than about 7.6 billion years<ref>Denis Overbye. [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/11/science/space/11earth.html "Kissing the Earth Goodbye in About 7.59 Billion Years"], ''[[New York Times]]'', March 11, 2008.</ref>; before actual collision with the sun, the oceans would evaporate, and Earth could be destroyed by [[tidal forces]]. Alternatively, if the Sun shrinks to a [[white dwarf]] before consuming Earth, the Earth would be too frigid to sustain life.
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| − | ===Humanity===
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| − | Some threats for humanity come from humanity itself. The scenario that has been explored most is a [[nuclear warfare#current concerns|nuclear war]] or [[Doomsday device|another weapon]] with similar possibilities. It is difficult to predict whether it would exterminate humanity, but very certainly could alter civilization, in particular if there was a [[nuclear winter]] event.<ref name="nuclearwinter">Nick Bostrom, section 4.2.</ref>
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| − | Another category of disasters are [[technological singularity|unforeseen consequences of technology]].
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| − | It has been suggested that [[Artificial Intelligence#Hypothetical consequences of AI|learning computers]] that rapidly become [[superintelligence|superintelligent]] may take unforeseen actions or that [[Robot#possible dangers|robots]] would out-compete humanity.<ref name="billjoy">[[Bill Joy]], [http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy_pr.html Why the future doesn't need us]. In:[[Wired magazine]]. See also [[technological singularity]].[[Nick Bostrom]] 2002 Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence http://www.nickbostrom.com</ref> Because of its exceptional scheduling and organisational capability and the range of novel technologies it could develop, it is possible that the first Earth superintelligence to emerge could rapidly become very, very powerful. Quite possibly, it would be matchless and unrivalled: conceivably it would be able to bring about almost any possible outcome, and be able to foil virtually any attempt that threatened to prevent it achieving its desires.<ref name="Bostrom">[[Nick Bostrom]] 2002 Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence http://www.nickbostrom.com</ref> It could eliminate, wiping out if it chose, any other challenging rival intellects, alternatively it might [[manipulate]] or persuade them to change their behaviour towards its own interests, or it may merely obstruct their attempts at interference.<ref name="Bostrom" />
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| − | [[Biotechnology]] could lead to the creation of a [[pandemic]], [[Nanotechnology]] could lead to [[grey goo]] in which out-of-control [[self replication|self-replicating]] robots consume all living matter on [[Earth]] while building more of themselves - in both cases, either deliberately or by accident.<ref name="drexler">[[Eric Drexler]], [[Engines of Creation]], ISBN 0-385-19973-2, [http://www.foresight.org/EOC/ available online]</ref>
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| − | It has also been suggested that physical scientists might accidentally create a device that could destroy the earth and the solar system.<ref name="physicsaccident">Nick Bostrum, section 4.8</ref> In [[string theory]], there are some unknown variables. If those turn out to have an unfortunate value, the universe may not be stable and alter completely, destroying everything in it,<ref name="quantumtunneling">Malcolm Perry, ''Quantum Tunneling towards an exploding Universe?'' in: [[Nature]], [[24 April]] [[1986]]. [http://www.uhh.hawaii.edu/~dixon/quantum_tunneling.pdf available online].</ref> either at random or by an accidental experiment. This is called [[Quantum Vacuum Collapse]] by some.<ref name="qvc">[http://www.exitmundi.nl/vacuum.htm The day the Quantum Vacuum Collapsed]</ref> Another kind of accident is the ''[[Ice-9 Type Transition]]'', in which our planet including everything on it becomes a strange matter planet in a chain reaction. Some do not view this as a credible scenario.<ref name="ice9">Frank Wilczek, in an e-mail, [http://lists.nau.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind9907&L=phys-l&F=&S=&P=29937| This available online].</ref>
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| − | It has been suggested that runaway [[global warming]] might cause the climate on Earth to become like [[Venus]], which would make it uninhabitable. In less extreme scenarios it could cause the end of civilization.<ref name="runaway">Isaac M. Held, Brian J. Soden, ''Water Vapor Feedback and Global Warming'', In: Annu. Rev. Energy Environ 2000. [http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~gth/netscape/2000/annrev00.pdf available online]. Page 449.</ref> According to a UN climate report, the [[Himalayas|Himalayan]] glaciers that are the sources of [[Asia]]'s biggest rivers - [[Ganges]], [[Indus]], [[Brahmaputra]], [[Yangtze]], [[Mekong]], [[Salween]] and [[Yellow]] - could disappear by 2035 as temperatures rise.<ref>[http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/42387/story.htm Vanishing Himalayan Glaciers Threaten a Billion]</ref> Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the [[drainage basin]] of the Himalayan rivers.<ref>[http://www.peopleandplanet.net/pdoc.php?id=3024 Big melt threatens millions, says UN]</ref> [[India]], [[China]], [[Pakistan]], [[Bangladesh]], [[Nepal]] and [[Myanmar]] could experience floods followed by [[droughts]] in coming decades. In [[India]] alone, the Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people.<ref>[http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/jul/24indus.htm Ganges, Indus may not survive: climatologists]</ref><ref>[http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90781/90879/6222327.html Glaciers melting at alarming speed]</ref><ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3998967.stm Himalaya glaciers melt unnoticed]</ref> The west coast of [[North America]], which gets much of its water from glaciers in mountain ranges such as the [[Rocky Mountains]] and [[Sierra Nevada (U.S.)|Sierra Nevada]], also would be affected.<ref>[http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080317154235.htm Glaciers Are Melting Faster Than Expected, UN Reports]</ref><ref>[http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-snowpack2-2008may02,0,6563964.story Water shortage worst in decades, official says], Los Angeles Times</ref> According to the [[California Department of Water Resources]], if more water supplies are not found by 2020, [[California]] residents will face a [[water crisis|water shortfall]] nearly as great as the amount consumed today.<ref>[http://www.greatlakesdirectory.org/zarticles/082102_water_shortage.htm World Running Short on Water]</ref>
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| − | Approximately 40% of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded.<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/aug/31/climatechange.food Global food crisis looms as climate change and population growth strip fertile land]</ref> In [[Africa]], if current trends of soil degradation continue, the continent might
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| − | be able to feed just 25% of its population by 2025, according to [[United Nations University|UNU]]'s Ghana-based Institute for Natural Resources in Africa.<ref>[http://news.mongabay.com/2006/1214-unu.html Africa may be able to feed only 25% of its population by 2025]</ref>
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| − | [[James Lovelock]], creator of the [[Gaia hypothesis]], in his book ''[[The Revenge of Gaia]]'' (2006), has suggested that the elimination of [[rain forest]]s, and the falling planetary [[biodiversity]] is removing the [[homeostasis|homeostatic]] [[negative feedback]] mechanisms that maintain climate stability by reducing the effects of [[greenhouse gas]] emissions (particularly [[carbon dioxide]]). With the heating of the oceans, the extension of the [[thermocline]] layer into [[Arctic]] and [[Antarctic]] waters is preventing the overturning and nutrient enrichment necessary for [[algal blooms]] of [[phytoplankton]] on which the [[ecosystem]]s of these areas depend. With the loss of phytoplankton and tropical rain forests, two of the main [[carbon dioxide sink]]s for reducing [[global warming]], he suggests a runaway [[positive feedback]] effect could cause tropical [[desert]]s to cover most of the world's tropical regions, and the disappearance of polar ice caps, posing a serious challenge to global civilization.
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| − | Using [[scenario analysis]], the [[Global scenario group]] (GSG), a coalition of international scientists convened by [[Paul Raskin]], developed a series of possible futures for the world as it enters a [[Planetary Phase of Civilization]]. One scenario involves the complete breakdown of civilization as the effects of [[climate change]] become more pronounced, competition for scarce resources increases, and the rift between the poor and the wealthy widens. The GSG’s other scenarios, such as [[Policy Reform]], [[Eco-Communalism]], and [[Great Transition]] avoid this societal collapse and eventually result in environmental and social [[sustainability]]. They claim the outcome is dependent on human choice<ref>[http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/16WorldLines.pdf World Lines: Pathways, Pivots, and the Global Future]. [[Paul Raskin]]. 2006. Boston:[http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute] </ref> and the possible formation of a [[global citizens movement]] which could influence the trajectory of global development.<ref> [http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/15Movements.pdf Dawn of the Cosmopolitan: The Hope of a Global Citizens Movement] Orion Kriegman. 2006. Boston:[http://www.tellus.org Tellus Institute]</ref>
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| − | ===Other scenarios===
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| − | ; [[Peak oil]] : Fossil Fuels attain a level of scarcity before an economically viable replacement is devised, leading firstly to economic strain, followed by the collapse of modern agriculture, then to mass-starvation, and ending in global thermonuclear war.<ref name="peakoil">[[James Howard Kunstler]] [http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/_/id/7203633?rnd=1128183871020&has-player=true&version=6.0.12.1059 "The Long Emergency"], in [[Rolling Stone Magazine]]</ref>
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| − | ; [[Antibiotic resistance]] : Natural selection would create super bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics, devastating the world population and causing a global collapse of civilization.<ref>[http://www.pasteur.fr/actu/presse/press/07pesteTIGR_E.htm Researchers sound the alarm: the multidrug resistance of the plague bacillus could spread]</ref>
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| − | ; [[Shutdown of thermohaline circulation|Gulf Stream shutdown]] : There is some speculation that [[global warming]] could, via a shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localised cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling in that region. This would affect in particular areas like [[Ireland]], the [[Nordic countries]], and [[United Kingdom|Britain]] that are warmed by the [[North Atlantic drift]].<ref>[http://www.gulfstreamshutdown.com/ Gulf Stream shutdown]</ref><ref>[http://news.mongabay.com/2005/1207-uiuc.html 45% chance Gulf Stream current will collapse by 2100 finds research]</ref>
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| − | ; [[Demography]] : Demographic trends create a "baby bust" that threatens the order of civilization.<ref name="babybust">[[Phillip Longman]] [http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040501faessay83307/phillip-longman/the-global-baby-bust.html "The Global Baby Bust"] in [[Foreign Affairs]] magazine.</ref>
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| − | ; [[Mutual assured destruction]] : A full scale [[nuclear warfare|nuclear war]] could kill billions, and the resulting [[nuclear winter]] would effectively crush any form of civilization.
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| − | ; [[Overpopulation]] : Some scenarios of simultaneous ecological (food & water production) and economical (see f.e. below) collapses with overpopulation are presumed to lead to a global civil war, where the remaining habitable areas are destroyed by competing humans (so called '[[Mad Max]]'-scenario).
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| − | ; [[Famine]] : As of late 2007, increased farming for use in [[biofuel]]s, along with world [[oil prices]] at over $140 a barrel,<ref>[http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0118/p08s01-comv.html The global grain bubble]</ref> has pushed up the price of grain used to feed poultry and dairy cows and other cattle, causing higher prices of wheat (up 58%), soybean (up 32%), and maize (up 11%) over the year.<ref> ''New York Times'' (2007 September) [http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/06/business/06tyson.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/Subjects/W/Wheat At Tyson and Kraft, Grain Costs Limit Profit]</ref><ref>[http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=213343 Forget oil, the new global crisis is food]</ref> [[2007–2008 world food price crisis|Food riot]]s have recently taken place in many countries across the world.<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/dec/04/china.business Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends food costs soaring]</ref><ref>[http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3500975.ece Already we have riots, hoarding, panic: the sign of things to come?]</ref><ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/feb/26/food.unitednations Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits]</ref> An [[epidemic]] of stem rust on [[wheat]] caused by race [[Ug99]] is currently spreading across [[Africa]] and into [[Asia]] and is causing major concern. Scientists say millions of people face starvation.<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2007/apr/22/food.foodanddrink Millions face famine as crop disease rages]</ref><ref name = NewSci> {{cite journal | url = http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19425983.700-billions-at-risk-from-wheat-superblight.html
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| − | |journal = New Scientist Magazine |title=Billions at risk from wheat super-blight |year=2007-04-03
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| − | |accessdate = 2007-04-19 |issue=issue 2598 |pages = 6–7}}</ref><ref>Leonard, K.J. ''[http://www.ars.usda.gov/Main/docs.htm?docid=10755 Black stem rust biology and threat to wheat growers]'', USDA ARS</ref>
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| − | ;Experimental accident : The unlikely creation of a hypothetical [[gravitational singularity|microsingularity]] or exotic matter in particle acceleration experiments, or some unanticipated experimental accident, resulting in destruction of the planet or a large scale disaster.
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| − | There were fears (since dismissed) that the first test of an atomic weapon, the [[Trinity (nuclear test)|Trinity test]] might have led to ignition of the atmosphere and global destruction{{Fact|date=September 2008}}.
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| − | In 2008, concern arose that the [[Large Hadron Collider#Safety concerns|Large Hadron Collider]] might trigger a disaster when activated,<ref>New Scientist, 28 August 1999: "A Black Hole Ate My Planet"[http://www.kressworks.com/Science/A_black_hole_ate_my_planet.htm]</ref> although the consensus in the scientific community is that there is no basis for any conceivable threat from the LHC particle collisions.<ref>http://www.aps.org/units/dpf/governance/reports/upload/lhc_saftey_statement.pdf</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://public.web.cern.ch/Public/en/LHC/Safety-en.html|title=Safety at the LHC}}</ref><ref>J. Blaizot et al, "Study of Potentially Dangerous Events During Heavy-Ion Collisions at the LHC", [http://cdsweb.cern.ch/search?sysno=002372601cer CERN library record] [http://doc.cern.ch/yellowrep/2003/2003-001/p1.pdf CERN Yellow Reports Server (PDF)]</ref>
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| − | ==Historical futurist scenarios==
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| − | [[Sir Isaac Newton]] (1642-1727), who was involved in alchemy and many other things in addition to science and mathematics, studied old texts and surmised that the end of the world would happen no earlier than 2060, although he was reluctant to put an exact date on it.<ref>[http://www.isaac-newton.org/newton_2060.htm "Isaac Newton, the Apocalypse and 2060 A.D."], by Stephen D. Snobelen, University of King’s College, Halifax</ref>
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| − | Many believe that the [[Maya civilization]]'s [[Maya calendar|Long Count calendar]] ends abruptly on [[December 21]] [[2012]]. This misconception is due to the Maya practice of using only five places in Long Count Calendar inscriptions. On some monuments the Maya calculated dates far into the past and future but there is no end of the world date. There will be a [[Mesoamerican Long Count calendar#Piktuns and higher orders|Piktun]] ending (a cycle of 13 144,000 day Bak'tuns) on December 21st, 2012. A Piktun marks the end of a 1,872,000 day or approximately 5125 year period and is a significant event in the Maya calendar.
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| − | ==Notes==
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| − | {{reflist|2}}
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| − | ==References==
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| − | *Corey S. Powell (2000). [http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_10_21/ai_65368918 "Twenty ways the world could end suddenly"], ''[[Discover Magazine]]''
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| − | *[[Martin Rees]] (2004). ''[[Our Final Hour|OUR FINAL HOUR: A Scientist's warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in This Century — On Earth and Beyond]]''. ISBN 0-465-06863-4
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| − | *[[Jean-Francois Rischard]] (2003). ''High Noon 20 Global Problems, 20 Years to Solve Them''. ISBN 0-465-07010-8
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| − | *[[Edward O. Wilson]] (2003). ''The Future of Life''. ISBN 0-679-76811-4
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| − | ==Further reading==
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| − | *[[Derrick Jensen]] (2006) ''[[Endgame (Derrick Jensen books)|Endgame]]''. ISBN 1-58322-730-X
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| − | *[[Jared Diamond]] (2005). ''[[Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed]]''. ISBN 0-670-03337-5
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| − | *[[John Leslie (philosopher)|John Leslie]] (1996). ''The End of the World''. ISBN 0-415-14043-9
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| − | ==External links==
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| − | *[http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=2319986 Last Days On Earth] (TV documentary) ABC News 2-hour Special Edition of 20/20 on 7 real end-of-the-world scenarios (Wed. Aug 30 2006)
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| − | *[http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1458536,00.html "What a way to go"] from ''[[The Guardian]]''. Ten scientists name the biggest danger to Earth and assesses the chances of it happening. April 14, 2005.
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| − | *[http://www.frankfuredi.com/articles/misanthropy-20060418.shtml "Confronting the New Misanthropy"], by [[Frank Furedi]] in ''[[Spiked (magazine)|Spiked]]'', April 18 2006
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| − | *[http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/167 Ted.com (video) - Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end]
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| − | *[http://www.armageddononline.org Armageddon Online], A collection of doomsday scenarios & Daily News
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| − | *[http://www.exitmundi.nl Exit Mundi], a collection of end-world scenarios.
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| − | [[Category:Futurology]]
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